Academic investment research project · HHL Leipzig
Fraport AG
Investment analysis and integrated three-statement model of the Frankfurt Airport operator.
- INVEST
- Recommendation
- 7.2× → 4.4×
- Net debt / EBITDA by 2030
- 15–17%
- Implied upside
A fundamental investment analysis of Fraport AG, the listed operator of Frankfurt Airport, built around a fully integrated three-statement financial model.
The challenge
Fraport was emerging from an unusually capital-intensive period with elevated leverage following major infrastructure investment and the disruption caused by COVID.
The central investment question was whether recovering passenger volumes, operating leverage and falling capital expenditure could translate into sufficiently strong free cash flow and deleveraging to create equity value.
The process
I built a fully integrated model spanning 2020A–2030P, linking the income statement, balance sheet and cash flow statement and reconciling the historical period to reported results.
I forecast the operating business and analysed revenue growth, margins, capex, cash generation, leverage and ROIC.
To test the assumptions against the market, I benchmarked Fraport against five listed airport operators — ADP, Aena, Zurich Airport, Vienna Airport and Auckland Airport.
I then translated the operating forecast into free cash flow and valuation outcomes, using market multiples and analyst targets as cross-checks.
The outcome
The analysis resulted in an INVEST recommendation.
In the base case, free cash flow increases from approximately €0.3bn to €0.9bn, while net debt / EBITDA falls from approximately 7.2× to 4.4× by 2030.
The valuation cross-check suggested approximately 15–17% upside, supporting a thesis centred on Fraport transitioning from a build phase toward cash-flow harvest and deleveraging.